The Art & Science of Prediction

Super-Forecasting

Who is Philip Tetlock

On the Expert Political Judgements Project

Phase 2 of his research

Paul Meehl and Statistical Judgment

System 1 and System 2

Measuring Forecast Accuracy

Expert Political Judgements — The Special Ones

The fox knows many things but the hedgehog knows one big thing’…I dubbed the Big Idea experts “hedgehogs” and the more eclectic experts “foxes”

Growth vs Fixed Mindset

The Leader’s Dilemma

Leaders must be forecasters and leaders but it seems that what is required to success at one role may undermine the other.

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